Don't try to run bluffs based on the assumption intelligence

I was stuck at work this weekend babysitting a test and slow played some poker to pass the time. My first session went well. I ran like god, flopping sets left and right, and playing pretty well overall. I took a break and then played some more. I probably shouldn't have since I almost immediately lost two $800 pots in a row. The latter one was somewhat forgivable. However, the second one was just a spot where I should not have lost more than $16.

I basically made a read that based on raise size, a player could not have a hand much better than top pair. I then ran my AQo high into bottom set. Hooray. In the hand, the flop came Jc7x8c. I led into the pot and got min-raised. At this point, against a sane thinking player, I would eliminate monsters from his range, since on this board, there are draws abound. Making this raise lets medium strength made hands call down cheap and gives draws an extremely cheap card. Two blanks came off and I got called down by 77. I don't really stepping out of line once in a while, but against someone who I don't know who is probably an idiot, it's a really bad idea. I think I can reasonably represent T9, 88 or JJ with that line, so even bottom set has to give calling the river a little bit of thought, but the other player was a significant loser and is not going to be able to fold a set ever.

However, after those two pots, I got my head back together and managed to scrape my way back up. Overall for Saturday, I ended up $147, but it probably should have been significantly more.