Mediocre session

I played for a while yesterday while babysitting a test at work.  I was sharp at the beginning of the session and was up ~$200, which I then lost flopping bottom two pair against top two pair in a blind v. blind hand.  Towards the end of the session, I ran into a few unfortunate situations and made one call that was unforgivable.  From being up ~$200, I was down $330 pretty quickly.

End result: -$336.70

I did make a few really good calls, one with a naked ace high:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($338.65)
Button ($240.80)
SB ($251.15)
BB ($417)
UTG ($255.55)
Hero (MP) ($674.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, 8
1 fold, Hero bets $6, 1 fold, Button calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15) 4, 7, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, Button calls $10

Turn: ($35) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $25, Button calls $25

River: ($85) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $55, Hero calls $55

Total pot: $195 | Rake: $3

Results:

Button had 8, J (one pair, sevens).
Hero had A, 8 (one pair, sevens).

Outcome: Hero won $192

I think this call is actually pretty standard.  A huge chunk of his range is draws that miss on the river: flush draws, 5's, or some sort of 8 that backed into an open ended straight on the turn.  The only hand that really makes sense is 75 suited or 78 suited.

Another session, another win and my biggest pot to date

Another good session.  It started out poorly, with me leaking as usual (calling too much) and got better after I encountered a few good situations.

Here are the details of the session:

• 4 hours played

• 891 hands played

• +$774.90

• +$5114.15 on the year (25.5% of the way to my goal after 13% of the year has gone by)

And as an added bonus, here's my biggest pot to date:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($403.50)
MP ($200)
Hero (CO) ($494.30)
Button ($1588.75)
SB ($257.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A

1 fold, Hero raises to $6, Button calls $6, SB calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($20) 5, A, 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14, Button raises to $42, 1 fold, Hero calls $28

Turn: ($104) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $72, Hero raises to $200, Button raises to $1540.75 (All-In), Hero calls $246.30 (All-In)

River: ($996.60) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $996.60 | Rake: $3

Results:

Button had 3, 3 (three of a kind, threes).
Hero had A, A (three of a kind, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $993.60

A response and my response...

Here is the response from one of the guys on the thread:

From: Responder 6

----------------------------------------

Define p as % of time won before the flop with the 3-bet
Define c as % of time won after the flop with a continuation bet shove

EV = p*(25+25+2+3+5) + (1-p)*(EV when called before the flop) = p*60 +
(1-p)*(c*(135)+(1-c)*(-250))
EV = +$1.25

Note that the parameters are here are extremely generous, given that I
think you will win the pot before the flop significantly more than 50% of
the time and you will almost never be drawing dead when called on the flop;
you'll sometimes actually be ahead!

----------------------------------------

On the contrary, I disagree here.  If he's not going to fold with 78s, he's
no where near folding 50% of the time pre-flop.  If he calls with a gutshot,
he's no where near folding 50% of the time post-flop.  Anything less than
50/50 and the equation above is a loss, so there was no proof offered.

If it's a solid player, then the math is very different because his chances
of an overpair calling your raise is much larger.

And my response:

I don't think this disagreement gets at the heart of the point that I was trying to make. The parameters of the situation as I presented it were just to show that given the stack depths and the villain's loose tendencies, squeezing with any reasonable hand is a +EV play. I can flesh things out a little further.

Let's examine Responder 6's two assertions a little more closely. They are pretty closely related, so let's consider their joint implications. If the villain is loose and aggressive pre-flop and is rarely folding on the flop, that means that his calling range of our shove on the flop is very wide. This means that when the villain calls on the flop, then we are nowhere near drawing dead. For example, if he's going to call with naked 8-high gutshots every time, then when you get your money in with Q high on the flop you will actually have the best hand a non-negligible part of the time and be a favorite to win. You managed to get all your money in with dead money in the pot as the favorite to win at showdown. This is a great cash-game situation.

If I change the parameters of the situation to:

%Chance of folding PF = 25%
%Chance of folding on the flop = 20%

Then giving the villain a loose range and giving me a random hand, I still have ~40% equity on the flop!

If these parameters are accepted as being reasonable, then you STILL make money on the move.

Let's talk about the hero's hand in particular. Since we have a decent hand, not any two cards, we have a more profitable spot to squeeze here. Given that the villain is very loose and aggressive in the hero's description, let us also suppose that he is opening any two big cards, any pair, any ace, any suited king, any suited connector, and any connector 67 or bigger. This makes his range:

22+,
A2s+, A2o+
K2s+,
QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s
KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o

This turns out to be ~36% of hands

Let us also say that he only folds 25% of the time before the flop. This means that he will be playing approximately ~27% of hands when he gets to the flop.

On a Tx5h4h flop, ~80% of the hands that the villain has (assuming that he doesn't re-raise with the top of his range before the flop) are one pair or better, or any draw or a decent ace high.
When he calls, he range has ~51% equity against our 77.

Therefore, if we can model this situation as follows:

EV = $60*p+(1-p)*(c*$135+(1-c)*(.49*$285-.51*$250))

p=.25
c=.2

EV = +$42.54

Folding 77 in this spot is out of the question, since on average you will increase your stack by 17%. If you are routinely giving up your hand in spots like this, you are leaving a lot of money on the table.

Against a tighter player:

I want to point out how much the dead money in the pot affects the calculations here. Say that we are dealing with a tight player as Responder 6 contents, who is only raising from middle position with a tight range of 55+, AJo+,ATs+,KJs+, and KQo. This range constitutes only 10% of all hands. Furthermore, let's say that when re-raised, the player will only continue with AKo,AQs+, and TT or better. Also let's assume that he will re-raise all-in with any hand that he continues with. This is 3.8% of all hands and 38% of the player's opening range. This means that 62% of the time he will fold before the flop. Against this range, 77 has 33% equity. The pot will be $10+$25+$100+$250 = $385 and we will be being laid ~2.6 to 1, which makes this an easy call. Plugging these numbers in:

p = 62%
% Chance of winning when he does not fold = 33%

EV = $60*.62 + .38*( .33*$285 + .67*-$250) = +$9.29

Note that this continues to be +EV until the stack sizes hit about $322, or almost 30% deeper (i.e. reraising and calling the shove with 77 given the shoving range above).


So even if you know that a player is going to play as described above, re-raising with 77 is still a +EV play and strictly better than folding. The question against the tighter player is whether you can play the hand in such a way that your EV is greater by just calling. That depends both on you and the other player and is hard to model accurately.

I guess the main point here is that given stack depths, folding 77 is completely out of the question given almost any reasonable range of the opponent. Yes, you will sometimes get your money in as a significant underdog, but that is the cost of doing business in short-stacked cash games. As the stacks get deeper, the concerns that Responder 6 cite become much more relevant, since the dead money in the pot no longer offsets the money you lose by getting your money in as a 2-1 underdog.

I hope I haven't rambled too much; I didn't have anything to do tonight... Comments are appreciated.

So what's the problem?

The problems with the thinking presented by the people in this thread are a thinly veiled results oriented mindset and a total disregard for several very important factors:

• Position

• Stack sizes

• Player tendencies

• Dead money in the pot

• Strength of the button's hand

• Fold equity

Although they don't say it directly, many of the responses on this thread are basically saying:

"I don't want to get my money in when some of the time I will have by far the worst hand."  Saying things like "re-raising is bad because when called you're either in a race against two overs or against an overpair" show a total lack of understanding of the effect that stack depth and dead money play in situations like this.

To start the hand, blinds of 2, 3, and 5 are already in the pot.  Effective stacks for the hand are only ~$250, which is <>

The hero of the hand has already noted that the villain is a loose and aggressive player.  With the raise and call, the size of the pot is already 12BB, which is almost a third of the button's stack.  In this spot, a hand like 77 is pure gold.  Calling here is utterly terrible, since this will encourage a multiway pot in which 77 will play poorly unless it flops a set.  For example, say the button calls and the big blind calls.  The pot is now $110 and the effective stacks are $225.  7.5 out of 8.5 times, 77 will miss and most of the time there will be at least one over card and one bet ahead of the 77.  Folding the best hand in a 21BB pot when the stacks are only 45BB deep is terrible.

It should also be clear that folding 77 in this spot is unforgivable as well.  There are only 7 hands that are statistically stronger than in Hold'em and the chances of a better pair being at the table after a majority of the players have already folded is very small.  By re-raising, the button can isolate against the loose opener with a good amount of money in the pot to be scooped up when the 3-bet wins the pot before the flop.  Even when called, 77 is strong enough against the range of the villain that moving in on almost any flop is warranted.

Here is my response to the thread:

This hand was sent to me by my brother who thought I might be interested in commenting.

First, I agree with everybody else in the thread that the villain's play was atrocious. He had a clear fold to the re-raise before the flop. Then when he flops a hand that he's going to call with, he needs to ship it in, hoping to fold out pairs smaller than the T and ace high hands like AJ-AQ. Check-calling with a naked gutshot is retarded and lets the other guy get all of his money in good with a hand as bad as A high (i.e. his ENTIRE range).

However, my main comments on this hand are about these remarks:

----------------------------------------

Middle pairs are hard hands to play! I would say calling or folding are both better than raising to 100.

The problem with raising to $100, IMO, is that your hand is probably either a small favorite or a big underdog, and you are pot-committing yourself. This is a big error in no-limit. Now, it turns out that you were actually a big favorite, but you could not have known that -- most of the time in that spot it's either a small favorite or a big underdog. It's either overcards (including crap like 9-10) or a bigger pair (again, including not-so-great hands like 88 and 99)

If you really think that you can read and outplay the guy, I'd say, call preflop. If not, consider folding and waiting for a better spot. I know that it looks like a great hand compared to the assorted crap that you pick up on a regular basis, but, without having a read on the guy, it is a VERY difficult hand to play post-flop. Your choices are either put your money in every time (not great for the same reason that raising to 100 preflop is not great) or fold unless if you flop a set (and you're not getting the implied odds for this)

Having said that, the other guy's play was much, much worse. If you play against this guy on a regular basis you should take all his money. That's probably not worth dwelling on though.

----------------------------------------

I have to strongly disagree with this line of thinking. Advocating anything other than a good-sized 3-bet when you have the button with 77 after a loose opener opens in middle position and is just flat called when effective stacks are less than 50BB deep is playing scared. With the amount of dead money in the pot, squeezing here with total air would be profitable if you take it down before the flop only 50% of the time and your continuation bet shove is called 50% of the time and you are always drawing dead when called (assuming the first caller in the pot always folds pre-flop):

Define p as % of time won before the flop with the 3-bet
Define c as % of time won after the flop with a continuation bet shove

EV = p*(25+25+2+3+5) + (1-p)*(EV when called before the flop) = p*60 + (1-p)*(c*(135)+(1-c)*(-250))
EV = +$1.25

Note that the parameters are here are extremely generous, given that I think you will win the pot before the flop significantly more than 50% of the time and you will almost never be drawing dead when called on the flop; you'll sometimes actually be ahead!

In this spot, your 77 is much, much better than total air. Given that this opener is loose, saying that he will only call the reraise with two overs or bigger pairs is too tight a restriction, especially taking into account the way the hand in question ended up playing.
Note that I am not saying this is true of an unknown player. In that spot, it's more likely the case that you would be up against bigger pairs and AQ, AK. However, even then, your flop continuation bet will get him to fold the best hand some of the time (i.e. he has 88-JJ and the flop comes AQ4 rainbow) and you will suck out some of the time when you get the rest of your money in behind.
In this specific case however, I think it is reasonable to assume that a player this loose and bad will end up calling the re-raise preflop with any pair, any suited ace, and KQ or better and some % of his suited connectors and will continue on the flop with almost any pair, any draw and probably his good unimproved A high hands. From this it should be clear that your hand will play very reasonably against his range on the flop, even when he calls you.

Given that I've shown that squeezing with ATC is profitable above, folding 77 in this spot CANNOT be better than raising. Calling here is bad since you will fold the best hand too often on the flop (which is a crime when you are this shallow), you are not nearly deep enough to set mine, and your hand plays extremely poorly after the flop in a multiway pot when you do not flop a set.

Hero, you played the hand perfectly. Going broke here stinks, but not going broke here is even worse.

A troubling thread

My brother just sent me the following thread.  I think most of the responses demonstrate a severe flaw in poker thinking:

Forwarded conversation
Subject: A hand over the weekend
------------------------
From: Hero

So you're playing 2-3-5 NL in Lucky Chances over the weekend.  No raise to you in the middle position.  You see 7c8c and raise to 25.  1 call, folds all the way to button who raises to 100 (with about another ~150 behind him; you have him covered).  Folded all the way back to you again.  You call.  One more fold and you are heads up against the button.

Flop is [4h 5h 10c]

You check.  Button thinks for a few seconds and pushes the remaining ~150.  You call.  Turn is 6s - kachink!  River is 3d, so the board is [4h 5h 10c 6s 3d].  You show your hand.  Button says "@#$%^&" and throws pocket 7s face up.

Comments?
----------

From: Responder 1
To: Hero

fish....



In all seriousness, I like the raise to 25.  Calling the $100 is complete lunacy.  Your implied odds are ruined.  You are losing, and putting 40% of your stack in before the flop.  Cut your losses at $25 and live to fight another day.

----------
From: Responder 2
To: Responder 1
Cc: Hero

Not only would I (generally the table fish at Lucky Chances) have folded to the $100 bet, I would never have called the post-flop $150. Terrible pot odds to try for a gutshot straight. 
----------

From: Responder 3
To: Hero


You both overplayed marginal hands.  Welcome to Lucky Chances.
----------

From: Responder 4
To: Responder 3
Cc: Hero


My guess is that you're the button (because middle position's play is pretty clearly awful at every point) and this is more or less a bad beat story. In any case, your preflop reraise with 77 was bad as it rarely gets action from worse hands (you'll mostly either take down $25 or end up all in preflop for $250 vs an overpair or AK, not a good gamble). But given that you made the reraise, the flop push is pretty mandatory to protect your hand.
----------

From: Responder 5
To: Responder 2
Cc: Responder 1, Hero


I'd call (not raise) pre-flop and if the table was aggressive, I might fold if there haven't been many callers after raises.  78-suited wants lots of passive callers pre-flop.  Your goal is to get out cheap when the flop doesn't help and rake it in when it does.  If I raised and called the re-raise I'd have folded after the flop as well.  You've got about 4 outs x two streets.  Since he bet his entire stack you can read that as 4 outs with two cards to come so you need 5:1.  You're not getting close to that so you fold.
----------

From: Responder 6
To: Responder 3
Cc: Hero


He basically was going to put the rest of his $100 in, and you would have covered him.

You basically were putting in $225 to win $535, at 42% pot odds.  If he had high cards (AK etc), your chance to win is about 40%, a marginal fold (assuming other guy folds).  If he had high pair, your chance to win is about 23%.  A clear fold.  So, a clear fold.

After the flop, your pot odds were $150/535 = 28%.  That's a call only if he hit nothing.  So, a clear fold.
----------

From: Responder 6
To: Responder 4
Cc: Responder 3, Hero


Good point, I didn't think that you reversed the situation.  You were basically raising all in with 77, which is generally not a good thing to do IMO against an unknown raiser.  The math backs it up, but I'm too lazy to post now.
----------

From: Responder 1
To: Responder 5
Cc: Responder 2, Hero



The problem with this "ABC play" is that you only win when you make a hand.  That's rare.  I also want to win when neither me nor my opponent makes a hand, which is common.  So, I like the raise to $25.  The hope is that you get exactly one (maybe 2) callers and you can take the pot down with a flop bet.  After all, they don't know you have 78 suited.

Of course, this only works at some tables.  If 4 people are going to come along for your $25 raise, there's no point.  If people are going to call your flop bet "to see if you have anything", there's no point.  If the table is filled with better players who are going to outplay you and try to steal it when they don't have anything either, there's no point (in this last case, I'd suggest getting up and finding a better place to spend your money, because you're not going to be winning).   On the other hand, if the table is filled with passive, straightforward players who will bet a good hand, call with a mediocre hand, and fold a crap hand, then this can be very effective -- because, usually, they will have crap.

Once you get re-raised, this goes completely out the window.  Someone re-raising to $100 is probably not going to give up on his hand, you you are almost certainly a massive underdog.  Just give up the $25 and try again later.  You don't need to win every hand...
----------

From: Responder 1
To: Responder 7
Cc: Responder 4, Responder 3, Hero


This is pretty poor as far as bad beat stories go.  Note that Mr 78 can win with a 6 xor  8, running J-9, or running clubs.
----------

From: Responder 7
To: Responder 1
Cc: Responder 4, Responder 3, Hero

(forgot to Replay-All)

Yah, button is only 69%, just over 2 to 1.

I don't think it's so much a bad beat story as a "How bad was that play" story? You really can't play much worse than MP did in this hand. While he did have odds to call the all in given the stack sizes and the actual, he can't really count on his 8 being an out so it's really a bad call, not to mention the horrible call preflop.

That said, I also hate the RR with 77 from the button.
----------

From: Responder 1
To: Responder 7
Cc: Responder 4, Responder 3, Hero


I agree.  MP play was atrocious.  Button play was marginal at best.  If you're going to overplay your hand, do it in a way to get the other player to fold.
----------

From: Hero
To: Responder 1
Cc: Responder 7, Responder 4, Responder 3


I suppose I should have given some 'state' first.  It was only my second trip ever to LC so I am stranger to them and vice-versa.  I was at the table for about an hour and a half and played pretty tight - very few calls to others' raises and no raises pre-flop.  MP, on the other hand, was playing aggressively, raising frequently before the flop (and folded to a big bluff from another player too).  I didn't put him on a big pair and I was ready to go heads up against over cards.  I probably didn't pay enough attention to the other player but he folded to my raise, so that's moot.  On flop, I took chances against a AT/KT figuring I already over-represented my hand.

What should I have done in that case?  Push pre-flop?  I turned out to have read the hand right but he was crazy enough to call $100 with 7c8c and $150 with a gut shot - and luck enough to hit it.  That's part of life. 

But what really got to me was that damn river and the way it raised my expectations very very high - only to slam them down just that hard.  I'm sure I kept a straight face and made no pre-mature celebrations but when he showed the 7 and the 8....it was #$%^.  I see some people getting angry and nasty on getting bad beats and I never do that, but that I was tempted there.  You did notice that I rivered a straight, right?
----------

From: Responder 1
To: Hero
Cc: Responder 7, Responder 4, Responder 3


Middle pairs are hard hands to play!  I would say calling or folding are both better than raising to 100.

The problem with raising to $100, IMO, is that your hand is probably either a small favorite or a big underdog, and you are pot-committing yourself.  This is a big error in no-limit.  Now, it turns out that you were actually a big favorite, but you could not have known that -- most of the time in that spot it's either a small favorite or a big underdog.  It's either overcards (including crap like 9-10) or a bigger pair (again, including not-so-great hands like 88 and 99)

If you really think that you can read and outplay the guy, I'd say, call preflop.  If not, consider folding and waiting for a better spot.  I know that it looks like a great hand compared to the assorted crap that you pick up on a regular basis, but, without having a read on the guy, it is a VERY difficult hand to play post-flop.  Your choices are either put your money in every time (not great for the same reason that raising to 100 preflop is not great) or fold unless if you flop a set (and you're not getting the implied odds for this)

Having said that, the other guy's play was much, much worse.  If you play against this guy on a regular basis you should take all his money.  That's probably not worth dwelling on though.
 

I know that it's hard in the heat of the moment (in fact, it's probably my biggest weakness at the table), but focusing on the play of the hand is more useful than focusing on the results.
----------

From: Responder 6
To: Responder 1
Cc: Hero, Responder 7, Responder 4, Responder 3


The end result is completely irrelevant.

Only your decisions are.
----------

From: Responder 5
To: Responder 1
Cc: Responder 2, Hero


I agree you want to win with less than ideal hands, but the guy re-raised and you ought to give it some respect.  You know that the follow-on bet is going happen as well since he's pot-committed so you almost have to read it as all-in.  Most of the time you want to "ABC play"-- you have to look for good spots to deviate and I just don't think this was a good one.  The raise wasn't the worst part.  $25 is something you can walk away from without getting into too much trouble-- adding the $75 was the biggest mistake.  The $100 bet says I want the pot or one player.  MPs hand says I want lots of players since I need drawing odds.  After the flop, you know you've got a bad draw hand.  It is possible you might count a few fractional outs for hitting your pair (8 is a winner as well, but you certainly don't know that) or runner-runner clubs but I wouldn't give it more than a total of 1 out.
----------

From: Responder 1
To: Responder 5
Cc: Responder 2, Hero



As I said, as soon as I get re-raised, I'm done.  The hand goes into the muck.  It would take a crowbar to pry another $75 out of my stack pre-flop.

My point was just that there's nothing wrong with the original raise to $25, in many circumstances.  I like playing my suited connectors this way, if the table conditions are right.  They often are.  Often, it's better than just calling.

Results for today's session

I had another good session today: 

• ~3.5 hours played

• ~750 hands played

• +$994.05

Total on the year: $4339.25 (21.6% of the way to yearly goal)

W00t!

Running good is fun

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


Button ($617.20)
SB ($169.25)
Hero (BB) ($491.80)
UTG ($100)
MP ($408.85)
CO ($119.25)


Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J

1 fold, MP raises to $8, 3 folds, Hero calls $6


Flop: ($17) Q, J, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $12, Hero raises to $45, MP calls $33

Turn: ($107) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $80, MP raises to $355.85 (All-In), Hero calls $275.85

River: ($818.70) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $818.70 | Rake: $3

Results:

Hero had J, J (full house, Jacks over fours).
MP had K, K (two pair, Kings and fours).

Outcome: Hero won $815.70


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


SB ($76)
BB ($218.35)
UTG ($270.40)
MP ($263.95)
CO ($108.35)
Hero (Button) ($513.75)


Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, A
UTG raises to $8, MP calls $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, SB calls $7, BB calls $6

Flop: ($40) 3, 8, 7 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $20, 1 fold, BB raises to $60, 2 folds, Hero raises to $150, BB raises to $210.35 (All-In), Hero calls $60.35

Turn: ($460.70) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($460.70) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $460.70 | Rake: $3
Results:

Hero had 5, A (straight flush, nine high).
BB had J, K (flush, King high).
Outcome: Hero won $457.70

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


MP ($243.95)
CO ($596.15)
Hero (Button) ($200)
BB ($200)
UTG ($207.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K
2 folds, CO raises to $6, Hero raises to $20, 1 fold, CO calls $14

Flop: ($42) 10, 3, 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $30, CO calls $30

Turn: ($102) J (2 players)
CO bets $102, Hero raises to $150 (All-In), CO calls $48

River: ($402) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $402 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had Q, K (straight, Ace high).
CO had 8, 7 (straight, Jack high).
Outcome: Hero won $399