Forwarded conversation
Subject: A hand over the weekend
------------------------
From: Hero
So you're playing 2-3-5 NL in Lucky Chances over the weekend. No raise to you in the middle position. You see 7c8c and raise to 25. 1 call, folds all the way to button who raises to 100 (with about another ~150 behind him; you have him covered). Folded all the way back to you again. You call. One more fold and you are heads up against the button.
Flop is [4h 5h 10c]
You check. Button thinks for a few seconds and pushes the remaining ~150. You call. Turn is 6s - kachink! River is 3d, so the board is [4h 5h 10c 6s 3d]. You show your hand. Button says "@#$%^&" and throws pocket 7s face up.
Comments?
----------
From: Responder 1
To: Hero
fish....
In all seriousness, I like the raise to 25. Calling the $100 is complete lunacy. Your implied odds are ruined. You are losing, and putting 40% of your stack in before the flop. Cut your losses at $25 and live to fight another day.
----------
From: Responder 2
To: Responder 1
Cc: Hero
Not only would I (generally the table fish at Lucky Chances) have folded to the $100 bet, I would never have called the post-flop $150. Terrible pot odds to try for a gutshot straight.
----------
From: Responder 3
To: Hero
You both overplayed marginal hands. Welcome to Lucky Chances.
----------
From: Responder 4
To: Responder 3
Cc: Hero
My guess is that you're the button (because middle position's play is pretty clearly awful at every point) and this is more or less a bad beat story. In any case, your preflop reraise with 77 was bad as it rarely gets action from worse hands (you'll mostly either take down $25 or end up all in preflop for $250 vs an overpair or AK, not a good gamble). But given that you made the reraise, the flop push is pretty mandatory to protect your hand.
----------
From: Responder 5
To: Responder 2
Cc: Responder 1, Hero
I'd call (not raise) pre-flop and if the table was aggressive, I might fold if there haven't been many callers after raises. 78-suited wants lots of passive callers pre-flop. Your goal is to get out cheap when the flop doesn't help and rake it in when it does. If I raised and called the re-raise I'd have folded after the flop as well. You've got about 4 outs x two streets. Since he bet his entire stack you can read that as 4 outs with two cards to come so you need 5:1. You're not getting close to that so you fold.
----------
From: Responder 6
To: Responder 3
Cc: Hero
He basically was going to put the rest of his $100 in, and you would have covered him.
You basically were putting in $225 to win $535, at 42% pot odds. If he had high cards (AK etc), your chance to win is about 40%, a marginal fold (assuming other guy folds). If he had high pair, your chance to win is about 23%. A clear fold. So, a clear fold.
After the flop, your pot odds were $150/535 = 28%. That's a call only if he hit nothing. So, a clear fold.
----------
From: Responder 6
To: Responder 4
Cc: Responder 3, Hero
Good point, I didn't think that you reversed the situation. You were basically raising all in with 77, which is generally not a good thing to do IMO against an unknown raiser. The math backs it up, but I'm too lazy to post now.
----------
From: Responder 1
To: Responder 5
Cc: Responder 2, Hero
The problem with this "ABC play" is that you only win when you make a hand. That's rare. I also want to win when neither me nor my opponent makes a hand, which is common. So, I like the raise to $25. The hope is that you get exactly one (maybe 2) callers and you can take the pot down with a flop bet. After all, they don't know you have 78 suited.
Of course, this only works at some tables. If 4 people are going to come along for your $25 raise, there's no point. If people are going to call your flop bet "to see if you have anything", there's no point. If the table is filled with better players who are going to outplay you and try to steal it when they don't have anything either, there's no point (in this last case, I'd suggest getting up and finding a better place to spend your money, because you're not going to be winning). On the other hand, if the table is filled with passive, straightforward players who will bet a good hand, call with a mediocre hand, and fold a crap hand, then this can be very effective -- because, usually, they will have crap.
Once you get re-raised, this goes completely out the window. Someone re-raising to $100 is probably not going to give up on his hand, you you are almost certainly a massive underdog. Just give up the $25 and try again later. You don't need to win every hand...
----------
From: Responder 1
To: Responder 7
Cc: Responder 4, Responder 3, Hero
This is pretty poor as far as bad beat stories go. Note that Mr 78 can win with a 6 xor 8, running J-9, or running clubs.
----------
From: Responder 7
To: Responder 1
Cc: Responder 4, Responder 3, Hero
(forgot to Replay-All)
Yah, button is only 69%, just over 2 to 1.
I don't think it's so much a bad beat story as a "How bad was that play" story? You really can't play much worse than MP did in this hand. While he did have odds to call the all in given the stack sizes and the actual, he can't really count on his 8 being an out so it's really a bad call, not to mention the horrible call preflop.
That said, I also hate the RR with 77 from the button.
----------
From: Responder 1
To: Responder 7
Cc: Responder 4, Responder 3, Hero
I agree. MP play was atrocious. Button play was marginal at best. If you're going to overplay your hand, do it in a way to get the other player to fold.
----------
From: Hero
To: Responder 1
Cc: Responder 7, Responder 4, Responder 3
I suppose I should have given some 'state' first. It was only my second trip ever to LC so I am stranger to them and vice-versa. I was at the table for about an hour and a half and played pretty tight - very few calls to others' raises and no raises pre-flop. MP, on the other hand, was playing aggressively, raising frequently before the flop (and folded to a big bluff from another player too). I didn't put him on a big pair and I was ready to go heads up against over cards. I probably didn't pay enough attention to the other player but he folded to my raise, so that's moot. On flop, I took chances against a AT/KT figuring I already over-represented my hand.
What should I have done in that case? Push pre-flop? I turned out to have read the hand right but he was crazy enough to call $100 with 7c8c and $150 with a gut shot - and luck enough to hit it. That's part of life.
But what really got to me was that damn river and the way it raised my expectations very very high - only to slam them down just that hard. I'm sure I kept a straight face and made no pre-mature celebrations but when he showed the 7 and the 8....it was #$%^. I see some people getting angry and nasty on getting bad beats and I never do that, but that I was tempted there. You did notice that I rivered a straight, right?
----------
From: Responder 1
To: Hero
Cc: Responder 7, Responder 4, Responder 3
Middle pairs are hard hands to play! I would say calling or folding are both better than raising to 100.
The problem with raising to $100, IMO, is that your hand is probably either a small favorite or a big underdog, and you are pot-committing yourself. This is a big error in no-limit. Now, it turns out that you were actually a big favorite, but you could not have known that -- most of the time in that spot it's either a small favorite or a big underdog. It's either overcards (including crap like 9-10) or a bigger pair (again, including not-so-great hands like 88 and 99)
If you really think that you can read and outplay the guy, I'd say, call preflop. If not, consider folding and waiting for a better spot. I know that it looks like a great hand compared to the assorted crap that you pick up on a regular basis, but, without having a read on the guy, it is a VERY difficult hand to play post-flop. Your choices are either put your money in every time (not great for the same reason that raising to 100 preflop is not great) or fold unless if you flop a set (and you're not getting the implied odds for this)
Having said that, the other guy's play was much, much worse. If you play against this guy on a regular basis you should take all his money. That's probably not worth dwelling on though.
I know that it's hard in the heat of the moment (in fact, it's probably my biggest weakness at the table), but focusing on the play of the hand is more useful than focusing on the results.
----------
From: Responder 6
To: Responder 1
Cc: Hero, Responder 7, Responder 4, Responder 3
The end result is completely irrelevant.
Only your decisions are.
----------
From: Responder 5
To: Responder 1
Cc: Responder 2, Hero
I agree you want to win with less than ideal hands, but the guy re-raised and you ought to give it some respect. You know that the follow-on bet is going happen as well since he's pot-committed so you almost have to read it as all-in. Most of the time you want to "ABC play"-- you have to look for good spots to deviate and I just don't think this was a good one. The raise wasn't the worst part. $25 is something you can walk away from without getting into too much trouble-- adding the $75 was the biggest mistake. The $100 bet says I want the pot or one player. MPs hand says I want lots of players since I need drawing odds. After the flop, you know you've got a bad draw hand. It is possible you might count a few fractional outs for hitting your pair (8 is a winner as well, but you certainly don't know that) or runner-runner clubs but I wouldn't give it more than a total of 1 out.
----------
From: Responder 1
To: Responder 5
Cc: Responder 2, Hero
As I said, as soon as I get re-raised, I'm done. The hand goes into the muck. It would take a crowbar to pry another $75 out of my stack pre-flop.
My point was just that there's nothing wrong with the original raise to $25, in many circumstances. I like playing my suited connectors this way, if the table conditions are right. They often are. Often, it's better than just calling.
No comments:
Post a Comment