• Position
• Stack sizes
• Player tendencies
• Dead money in the pot
• Strength of the button's hand
• Fold equity
Although they don't say it directly, many of the responses on this thread are basically saying:
"I don't want to get my money in when some of the time I will have by far the worst hand." Saying things like "re-raising is bad because when called you're either in a race against two overs or against an overpair" show a total lack of understanding of the effect that stack depth and dead money play in situations like this.
To start the hand, blinds of 2, 3, and 5 are already in the pot. Effective stacks for the hand are only ~$250, which is <>
This hand was sent to me by my brother who thought I might be interested in commenting.
First, I agree with everybody else in the thread that the villain's play was atrocious. He had a clear fold to the re-raise before the flop. Then when he flops a hand that he's going to call with, he needs to ship it in, hoping to fold out pairs smaller than the T and ace high hands like AJ-AQ. Check-calling with a naked gutshot is retarded and lets the other guy get all of his money in good with a hand as bad as A high (i.e. his ENTIRE range).
However, my main comments on this hand are about these remarks:
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Middle pairs are hard hands to play! I would say calling or folding are both better than raising to 100.
The problem with raising to $100, IMO, is that your hand is probably either a small favorite or a big underdog, and you are pot-committing yourself. This is a big error in no-limit. Now, it turns out that you were actually a big favorite, but you could not have known that -- most of the time in that spot it's either a small favorite or a big underdog. It's either overcards (including crap like 9-10) or a bigger pair (again, including not-so-great hands like 88 and 99)
If you really think that you can read and outplay the guy, I'd say, call preflop. If not, consider folding and waiting for a better spot. I know that it looks like a great hand compared to the assorted crap that you pick up on a regular basis, but, without having a read on the guy, it is a VERY difficult hand to play post-flop. Your choices are either put your money in every time (not great for the same reason that raising to 100 preflop is not great) or fold unless if you flop a set (and you're not getting the implied odds for this)
Having said that, the other guy's play was much, much worse. If you play against this guy on a regular basis you should take all his money. That's probably not worth dwelling on though.
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I have to strongly disagree with this line of thinking. Advocating anything other than a good-sized 3-bet when you have the button with 77 after a loose opener opens in middle position and is just flat called when effective stacks are less than 50BB deep is playing scared. With the amount of dead money in the pot, squeezing here with total air would be profitable if you take it down before the flop only 50% of the time and your continuation bet shove is called 50% of the time and you are always drawing dead when called (assuming the first caller in the pot always folds pre-flop):
Define p as % of time won before the flop with the 3-bet
Define c as % of time won after the flop with a continuation bet shove
EV = p*(25+25+2+3+5) + (1-p)*(EV when called before the flop) = p*60 + (1-p)*(c*(135)+(1-c)*(-250))
EV = +$1.25
Note that the parameters are here are extremely generous, given that I think you will win the pot before the flop significantly more than 50% of the time and you will almost never be drawing dead when called on the flop; you'll sometimes actually be ahead!
In this spot, your 77 is much, much better than total air. Given that this opener is loose, saying that he will only call the reraise with two overs or bigger pairs is too tight a restriction, especially taking into account the way the hand in question ended up playing.
Note that I am not saying this is true of an unknown player. In that spot, it's more likely the case that you would be up against bigger pairs and AQ, AK. However, even then, your flop continuation bet will get him to fold the best hand some of the time (i.e. he has 88-JJ and the flop comes AQ4 rainbow) and you will suck out some of the time when you get the rest of your money in behind.
In this specific case however, I think it is reasonable to assume that a player this loose and bad will end up calling the re-raise preflop with any pair, any suited ace, and KQ or better and some % of his suited connectors and will continue on the flop with almost any pair, any draw and probably his good unimproved A high hands. From this it should be clear that your hand will play very reasonably against his range on the flop, even when he calls you.
Given that I've shown that squeezing with ATC is profitable above, folding 77 in this spot CANNOT be better than raising. Calling here is bad since you will fold the best hand too often on the flop (which is a crime when you are this shallow), you are not nearly deep enough to set mine, and your hand plays extremely poorly after the flop in a multiway pot when you do not flop a set.
Hero, you played the hand perfectly. Going broke here stinks, but not going broke here is even worse.
The hero of the hand has already noted that the villain is a loose and aggressive player. With the raise and call, the size of the pot is already 12BB, which is almost a third of the button's stack. In this spot, a hand like 77 is pure gold. Calling here is utterly terrible, since this will encourage a multiway pot in which 77 will play poorly unless it flops a set. For example, say the button calls and the big blind calls. The pot is now $110 and the effective stacks are $225. 7.5 out of 8.5 times, 77 will miss and most of the time there will be at least one over card and one bet ahead of the 77. Folding the best hand in a 21BB pot when the stacks are only 45BB deep is terrible.
It should also be clear that folding 77 in this spot is unforgivable as well. There are only 7 hands that are statistically stronger than in Hold'em and the chances of a better pair being at the table after a majority of the players have already folded is very small. By re-raising, the button can isolate against the loose opener with a good amount of money in the pot to be scooped up when the 3-bet wins the pot before the flop. Even when called, 77 is strong enough against the range of the villain that moving in on almost any flop is warranted.
Here is my response to the thread:
This hand was sent to me by my brother who thought I might be interested in commenting.
First, I agree with everybody else in the thread that the villain's play was atrocious. He had a clear fold to the re-raise before the flop. Then when he flops a hand that he's going to call with, he needs to ship it in, hoping to fold out pairs smaller than the T and ace high hands like AJ-AQ. Check-calling with a naked gutshot is retarded and lets the other guy get all of his money in good with a hand as bad as A high (i.e. his ENTIRE range).
However, my main comments on this hand are about these remarks:
----------------------------------------
Middle pairs are hard hands to play! I would say calling or folding are both better than raising to 100.
The problem with raising to $100, IMO, is that your hand is probably either a small favorite or a big underdog, and you are pot-committing yourself. This is a big error in no-limit. Now, it turns out that you were actually a big favorite, but you could not have known that -- most of the time in that spot it's either a small favorite or a big underdog. It's either overcards (including crap like 9-10) or a bigger pair (again, including not-so-great hands like 88 and 99)
If you really think that you can read and outplay the guy, I'd say, call preflop. If not, consider folding and waiting for a better spot. I know that it looks like a great hand compared to the assorted crap that you pick up on a regular basis, but, without having a read on the guy, it is a VERY difficult hand to play post-flop. Your choices are either put your money in every time (not great for the same reason that raising to 100 preflop is not great) or fold unless if you flop a set (and you're not getting the implied odds for this)
Having said that, the other guy's play was much, much worse. If you play against this guy on a regular basis you should take all his money. That's probably not worth dwelling on though.
----------------------------------------
I have to strongly disagree with this line of thinking. Advocating anything other than a good-sized 3-bet when you have the button with 77 after a loose opener opens in middle position and is just flat called when effective stacks are less than 50BB deep is playing scared. With the amount of dead money in the pot, squeezing here with total air would be profitable if you take it down before the flop only 50% of the time and your continuation bet shove is called 50% of the time and you are always drawing dead when called (assuming the first caller in the pot always folds pre-flop):
Define p as % of time won before the flop with the 3-bet
Define c as % of time won after the flop with a continuation bet shove
EV = p*(25+25+2+3+5) + (1-p)*(EV when called before the flop) = p*60 + (1-p)*(c*(135)+(1-c)*(-250))
EV = +$1.25
Note that the parameters are here are extremely generous, given that I think you will win the pot before the flop significantly more than 50% of the time and you will almost never be drawing dead when called on the flop; you'll sometimes actually be ahead!
In this spot, your 77 is much, much better than total air. Given that this opener is loose, saying that he will only call the reraise with two overs or bigger pairs is too tight a restriction, especially taking into account the way the hand in question ended up playing.
Note that I am not saying this is true of an unknown player. In that spot, it's more likely the case that you would be up against bigger pairs and AQ, AK. However, even then, your flop continuation bet will get him to fold the best hand some of the time (i.e. he has 88-JJ and the flop comes AQ4 rainbow) and you will suck out some of the time when you get the rest of your money in behind.
In this specific case however, I think it is reasonable to assume that a player this loose and bad will end up calling the re-raise preflop with any pair, any suited ace, and KQ or better and some % of his suited connectors and will continue on the flop with almost any pair, any draw and probably his good unimproved A high hands. From this it should be clear that your hand will play very reasonably against his range on the flop, even when he calls you.
Given that I've shown that squeezing with ATC is profitable above, folding 77 in this spot CANNOT be better than raising. Calling here is bad since you will fold the best hand too often on the flop (which is a crime when you are this shallow), you are not nearly deep enough to set mine, and your hand plays extremely poorly after the flop in a multiway pot when you do not flop a set.
Hero, you played the hand perfectly. Going broke here stinks, but not going broke here is even worse.
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